FGV (5222) and JTIASA (4383)

Overall plantation sectors has been on a bull run since Dec'18. Back in Dec'18, the overall plantation sector index challenged its previous low in Oct'11 and Aug'15. Each low back then is followed by a strong rebound and history repeated itself again in Dec'18. How would we tap into this cycle then? 

Historical Plantation Sector Index from 2011 to 2019

As the plantation sector index continues to move higher, a rising wedge formation is building up at the same time. Hence, there is high possibility that corrections is happening soon. Watch for corrections downwards at the two levels indicated in the arrow below.

Closer view of the current plantation sector index

I will wait for corrections to happen on plantation sectors before initiating a position. I may missed out on the uptrend and will just move on to other counters then. Two counters shortlisted from our  screening methodology is FGV (5222) and JTIASA (4384). I will wait for these counters to go through corrections before initiating a trading position.

FGV Daily Charts

JTIASA Daily Charts

Possible Trade Setups as below:

FGV:
Entry: $0.90 cents to $1.03 range
Exit: According to your rate of returns / $1.35 / $1.575
Stop Loss: Below $0.90 cents (below 50 days MA)


JTIASA:
Entry: $0.54 cents to $0.60 cents
Exit: According to your rate of returns / $0.65 / $0.825
Stop Loss: Below $0.54 cents (below 50 days MA)

You can use the levels in the chart and risk / reward ratio to determine your trade setups. Identifying your rate of returns upfront will help to determine your exit target instead of relying on target profit.

Disclosure:
I/we have no positions in any of the stocks mentioned above. The above information is for sharing purposes and please do your own due diligence before buying.

INARI AMERTRON BERHAD 0166

Last week when sharing trading idea with my schoolmate, there is a question on how is the outlook for Inari Amertron Berhad (0166)?

Let's look at the overall chart below whereby a double top formation ("M"), followed by a corrections to the low of 1.22 and moving upward above 1.36 (key support level) since then. The current rally up since Dec'18 is considered a correction to the overall major downtrend if key support of 1.36 is broken in coming weeks. 

Inari Weekly Chart

Technicals:
Key Support 1 at 1.360
Key Resistance at 2.08 and followed by 2.55
Stop Loss at 1.360
Watch for bottom reversal near 1.360

Recomendations:
Aggressive trader: Entry at 1.50, Cut loss if it closes below 1.36, and target profit of 2.55 within 4 months. Monitor price actions after entry

Conservative trader: Wait for confirmation of reversal to enter, and target profit of 2.55 within 4 months. Monitor price actions after entry

Revisit of Genting Malaysia (3182)

Let's review Genting Malaysia (3182) since the posting on 10 Feb 2019, where has the price move to?

Let look at the recent chart below:
Latest close at RM7.51. Based on the article on 10 Feb 2019, 1st target is RM7.45 already achieved.
The gain since 8 Feb till 24 Feb 2019, RM7.11 till RM7.51, total gain is 5.6%.

Let's watch if the 2nd and 3rd target will be achieved in the near term.
2nd Target:RM8.00 (12.5% Gain from 8th Feb)
3rd Target: RM8.75 (23% Gain from 8th Feb)

Do take your profit based on your rate of return, above just a guideline based on technical analysis.

Psychology In Trading

Hi Readers,

Recent market movements and influx of questions from friends and relatives prompted me that there is a need to share this topic :) It seems to me that most readers are now feeling euphoric that our sharing are doing great, helping readers to earn double digit (percentage) gains. Euphoric refers to a state of feeling intense excitement and happiness. If  you ever have that feeling (ini kali lah, ho seh liao, feeling gung-ho), your emotional feeling will likely lead to bad decisions, ignoring risks (lot size, red flags) and enter trades that does not fit your TRADING PLAN (your logical brain). Without you realizing it, biases starts to kick in. Biases are like shortcuts for your brain. They can have an unusually large impact on how you make decisions in your everyday life, but particularly when it comes to your trading.

Below are some of the biases that increases the odds of a loss:

1. Bandwagon effect
• Also known as the herd mentality. The tendency to do or believe things just because others doing the same
2. Recency bias
• Recent experience becomes the baseline of what is going to happen in future. Recent win or loss impacting your decision, or certain rumours/information forming the basis of your trades leading to fear of missing out (FOMO). 
3. Overconfidence effect
• Believing that you are right in your trades, which ultimately leads to taking higher risk (big lot size), hold losses for longer than you should (ignoring stop loss level), ignoring risk reward ratio, become arrogant or complacent and leading to disaster - capital losses
4. Aversion to loss
• The tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains: better to not lose $100 than to earn $100. Hence, ended up adjusting your stop loss when it goes against your initial plan as you believed it will turn around.

Erm... Wait a minute. Am I scaring you off? Are you questioning yourself again as I may have pointed some of the exact situation that you are going through?

Well, the good news is - Most of us don’t even know that we have such biases. I have it too!!! Even if we knew it, its difficult to challenge our reasoning behind making our decisions. Hence, its always good to pause and think about it before getting into a trade. Some of the questions below maybe helpful:

1. What drives you to enter this trade?
2. Was it technical charting (price actions) or fundamentals (cheap valuations)?
3. How does your recent trades performance and could that performance influence your decision?
4. Is this trade the talk of the town and you fear missing out?
5. If you have decided to enter, what is your trading plan?

I would also like to share the image below. Internalize each sentences and I hope it will also inspire you to be a better trader. 

Good luck and all the best!!!

Double Bottom on Genting Malaysia (3182)

When I was young, I love to go to Genting Highland for holidays. It is the only theme park in Malaysia back in 1980s. Today, it is still a darling for a lot of Malaysians for Cuti Cuti Malayisa destination.
Let go back to the stock for Genting Malaysia (3182), It trade at the down trend from RM8.75 since Sept 2018 till lowest RM5.92. From the chart it clearly showed that it completed the double bottom on 10 Jan 2019.

Technical Chart 1: Double bottom formation for Genting Malaysia (3182)

Since 10 Jan 2019, the price has move up tremendously. As of latest traded at RM7.11 on 8 Feb 2019. It is moving rapidly upwards. Next probable target could be
1st Target: RM7.45
2nd Target:RM8.00
3rd Target: RM8.75

Technical Chart 2: Genting Malaysia (3182) continue to move upwards

Technical Chart 3: Genting Malaysia (3182) past year trend

From the Chart 3, it shows that in year 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2018 has dropped and climb up again. The recent 3 dipped are in year 2012, 2015 and 2018, the price has showed lower low.